2024 Presidential Election Predictions. 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing democrat kamala harris’s and republican donald trump’s chances of winning. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, senate, and house races by selecting any of the races listed below. This map tracks the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election.